Shenandoah County, VA — Solar Development Risk Assessment

Local solar ordinance barriers, board sentiment, and utility policies that affect development timelines and risk.

57
Risk Grade
Fair
2023 ordinance: 50-acre disturbance zone cap, specific buffer/spacing requirements. HB 711/SB 347: 50-acre disturbance cap challenges any application >~40 MW; near-prohibitive caps may be challengeable as functional bans under new framework. Setback provisions largely compatible with state floor.
Assessment Snapshot
Population
44,156
State Rank
#32
Compliance
70%
Trajectory
80

Moratorium Status

✓ No Active Moratorium
No Moratorium

Ordinance & Regulations

Setback Requirements
Shenandoah County (Ord. 2023-01, Apr 25 2023): Setbacks required: within 300 ft of identified historical, cultural, and scenic resources; within floodplain, 100-ft stream buffer, critical slopes, ridge areas, and other sensitive mapped features. Max disturbance zone per facility: ≤50 acres per 1-mile radius of each approved project.
Zoning Mechanism
Utility-scale solar permitted via SUP in agricultural zones (A-1, A-2); Ord. 2023-01 (Apr 25, 2023) established the current framework; SUP requires PC recommendation and BOS approval; projects subject to density cap of 50 acres disturbed zone within any 1-mile radius; BOS has cited cumulative density concerns in denials
Acreage Caps
Shenandoah County: ≤50 acres maximum disturbance zone per facility per 1-mile radius of each approved project (Ord. 2023-01).
Density Caps
≤50 acres disturbance zone radius restriction effectively limits density in any 1-mile area.
Spacing Rules
≤50-acre disturbance zone per 1-mile radius of approved projects — spacing and size are unified in one provision
Size Restrictions
≤50 acres maximum disturbance zone per facility per 1-mile radius of any approved project

Board Sentiment & Political Risk

Sentiment Analysis
Cautious/negative to utility-scale
Basis for Assessment
Project outcomes (denials/withdrawals/deferrals)
Political Risk Factors
Worsening
Board Members
Dennis Morris | R | Nov 2027 (Chair) Josh Stephens | R | Nov 2027 (Vice Chair) Steve Baker | R | Nov 2027 David Ferguson | R | Nov 2027 Karl Roulston | R | Nov 2027 Source: shenandoahcountyva.gov/167/Board-of-Supervisors

Grid, Utilities & State Context

Grid Operator
PJM / Dominion Energy Virginia (DEV) transmission zone
Utilities
Shenandoah Valley Electric Co-op (SVEC), Dominion Energy Virginia (DEV)
State Permitting Process
Local permit: Special Use Permit (SUP) or Conditional Use Permit (CUP) in A-1 Agricultural zoning; issued by Board of Supervisors (BOS) or Planning Commission per county ordinance. Counties without zoning (Buchanan, Russell, Lee, Scott, etc.) proceed via revenue-sharing siting agreements. SCC CPCN: Va. Code §56-580 (as amended by HB 1558/SB 762, eff. Jul 2021) — SCC Certificate of Public Convenience & Necessity required for generating facilities ≥5 MW; waivable for utility-owned projects under SCC-approved IRP. DEQ Permit by Rule (PBR): Required for all solar facilities ≥1 MW per Va. Code §10.1-1197.6; includes VSMP/VPDES erosion & stormwater permits. Mar 2022 DEQ rule: solar panels counted as impervious surface same as parking lots. Revenue sharing: Va. Code §15.2-2288.7 — localities may require up to $1,400/MW-year for utility-scale solar on agricultural or forestal land; increases 10% in year 1 then every 5 years thereafter. VDACS notice: VA Dept. of Agriculture & Consumer Services must be notified for projects converting prime agricultural or forestal land. PENDING LEGISLATION (as of Mar 11, 2026): HB 711 (Herring) / SB 347 (VanValkenburg) both cleared both chambers and await Gov. Spanberger's signature (session ends Mar 14, 2026). If signed: (1) all localities must allow solar ≥1 MW via special exception — outright bans illegal; (2) statewide setback floor: 150–200 ft non-participating dwellings, 50–100 ft from state roads, 100–250 ft from streams/wetlands, 50–75 ft from property lines; (3) localities retain denial authority but must report reasons to SCC public database; (4) companion HB 891/SB 443: BESS permitted accessory use on approved solar SE sites. Spanberger is pro-solar; signature expected. Monitor: lis.virginia.gov.
State Incentives
Virginia Clean Economy Act (VCEA, 2020): Dominion must reach 100% carbon-free by 2045; Appalachian Power by 2050; major driver of utility-scale solar procurement. Net metering: available under VCEA for systems up to 1 MW (by-right); large-scale behind-the-meter negotiated. SCC SolarShare: Dominion program offering renewable energy credits. Virtual net metering (Virginia): programs vary by utility. DEQ review: required for solar facilities ≥150 MW (permit by rule) or DEQ standalone review. Utility: Dominion Energy Virginia serves 2/3 of VA; Appalachian Power (AEP) serves western VA; Northern Virginia Electric Coop (NOVEC) serves NoVA exurbs; various rural cooperatives and municipal utilities.

Development Activity

Active/Completed Projects
No large-scale solar approvals under current ordinance. 2023 ordinance caps disturbance at 50 acres per one-mile radius, effectively prohibiting utility-scale development. Source: WHSV Apr 2023; Virginia Mercury Dec 2024
Denied/Withdrawn Projects
MSolar Edinburg (developer: MSolar) | SUP-21-12-01 | ~45–54 MW / ~165–168 disturbed acres | Application 2021 | Planning Commission tabled Dec 2, 2021 — never returned after county initiated ordinance overhaul; effective denial without formal vote Additional applications withdrawn 2022–2023 during moratorium period — developers did not advance to formal vote given political environment | County among 7 VA counties that enacted brakes on solar June 2022–May 2023

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