Risk Grade

Poor

Strongest setbacks in Virginia: 1,200 ft from primary roads + 300-acre aggregate cap — functionally prohibitive. CRITICAL: HB 711/SB 347 set a setback floor of 50–100 ft from roads. If signed, Page's 1,200 ft road setback — 12× the state maximum — is likely preempted. Could reopen development opportunity in northern/eastern portions of county.

Assessment Snapshot

Population

23,902

State Rank

#37

Compliance

90%

Trajectory

Moratorium Status

✓ No Active Moratorium

No Moratorium

Ordinance & Regulations

Setback Requirements

Page County (Jun 28 2022): all aboveground infrastructure/equipment/structures including security fencing: ≥300 ft from property lines with existing dwellings. Other property line setbacks per underlying zoning. Viewshed analysis required using scaled elevation views and photographs.

Zoning Mechanism

SUP, Special Use Permit, SE

Acreage Caps

300-acre aggregate cap for all solar facilities county-wide; 30-acre maximum per individual facility (adopted after deliberation period following Cape Solar controversy).

Density Caps

300-acre aggregate countywide cap (all approved utility-scale facilities combined); enacted Jun 28 2022. No projects approved beyond this limit without ordinance amendment.

Spacing Rules

≥2 miles from other utility-scale solar facilities; ≥1 mile from town boundaries; slope and farmland avoidance limits apply

Size Restrictions

≤30 acres maximum panel coverage per project; ≤65% site coverage ratio

Board Sentiment & Political Risk

Sentiment Analysis

Strongly negative

Basis for Assessment

Public opposition evidence (petitions/hearings/organized groups); Project outcomes (denials/withdrawals/deferrals)

Political Risk Factors

Worsening

Board Members

Dean Shenk | R | Jan 2028 Gary Forsythe | R | Jan 2028 David Beahm | R | Jan 2028 James Raines | R | Jan 2028 Jimmy Martin | R | Jan 2028

Grid, Utilities & State Context

Grid Operator

PJM / Dominion Energy Virginia (DEV) / Shenandoah Valley zone

Utilities

Shenandoah Valley Electric Co-op (SVEC), Dominion Energy Virginia (DEV)

State Permitting Process

Local permit: Special Use Permit (SUP) or Conditional Use Permit (CUP) in A-1 Agricultural zoning; issued by Board of Supervisors (BOS) or Planning Commission per county ordinance. Counties without zoning (Buchanan, Russell, Lee, Scott, etc.) proceed via revenue-sharing siting agreements. SCC CPCN: Va. Code §56-580 (as amended by HB 1558/SB 762, eff. Jul 2021) — SCC Certificate of Public Convenience & Necessity required for generating facilities ≥5 MW; waivable for utility-owned projects under SCC-approved IRP. DEQ Permit by Rule (PBR): Required for all solar facilities ≥1 MW per Va. Code §10.1-1197.6; includes VSMP/VPDES erosion & stormwater permits. Mar 2022 DEQ rule: solar panels counted as impervious surface same as parking lots. Revenue sharing: Va. Code §15.2-2288.7 — localities may require up to $1,400/MW-year for utility-scale solar on agricultural or forestal land; increases 10% in year 1 then every 5 years thereafter. VDACS notice: VA Dept. of Agriculture & Consumer Services must be notified for projects converting prime agricultural or forestal land. PENDING LEGISLATION (as of Mar 11, 2026): HB 711 (Herring) / SB 347 (VanValkenburg) both cleared both chambers and await Gov. Spanberger's signature (session ends Mar 14, 2026). If signed: (1) all localities must allow solar ≥1 MW via special exception — outright bans illegal; (2) statewide setback floor: 150–200 ft non-participating dwellings, 50–100 ft from state roads, 100–250 ft from streams/wetlands, 50–75 ft from property lines; (3) localities retain denial authority but must report reasons to SCC public database; (4) companion HB 891/SB 443: BESS permitted accessory use on approved solar SE sites. Spanberger is pro-solar; signature expected. Monitor: lis.virginia.gov.

State Incentives

Virginia Clean Economy Act (VCEA, 2020): Dominion must reach 100% carbon-free by 2045; Appalachian Power by 2050; major driver of utility-scale solar procurement. Net metering: available under VCEA for systems up to 1 MW (by-right); large-scale behind-the-meter negotiated. SCC SolarShare: Dominion program offering renewable energy credits. Virtual net metering (Virginia): programs vary by utility. DEQ review: required for solar facilities ≥150 MW (permit by rule) or DEQ standalone review. Utility: Dominion Energy Virginia serves 2/3 of VA; Appalachian Power (AEP) serves western VA; Northern Virginia Electric Coop (NOVEC) serves NoVA exurbs; various rural cooperatives and municipal utilities.

Development Activity

Active/Completed Projects

Dogwood Solar (Urban Grid) | 20 MW | 340-acre site / 76-acre panel footprint | APPROVED 4-2 by BOS after moratorium period; county adopted 300-acre aggregate / 30-acre per-facility cap before approval. Source: Page Valley News

Denied/Withdrawn Projects

Cape Solar (Urban Grid Solar / Cape Solar LLC) | 100 MW | 559 acres | Planning Commission unanimous denial Mar 8 2022; developer withdrew application Aug 16 2022. One-time county revenue projection: $6.9M; 35-yr revenue share: $4.48M. Source: pagevalleynews.com

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Page County, VA — Solar Development Risk Assessment