74.8

Risk Grade

Fail

Affluent North Bay coastal county with among the most restrictive utility-scale development environment in California; agricultural preserve and open space designations cover majority of land; Coastal Commission jurisdiction adds regulatory layer; NIMBYism from wealthy, environmentally engaged residents; MCE CCA satisfies clean energy mandate through out-of-county procurement; very high income ($130,800 median) and political engagement; C-grade reflects near-prohibition on utility-scale despite strong climate values

Assessment Snapshot

Population

258826

State Rank

#42

Compliance

63%

Trajectory

Moratorium Status

✓ No Active Moratorium

No specific moratorium information available.

Ordinance & Regulations

Setback Requirements

500 ft from occupied residences; 200 ft from property lines; additional buffers in agricultural preserve and open space zones

Zoning Mechanism

Conditional Use Permit (CUP); full CEQA EIR required for utility-scale; Coastal Development Permit required in Coastal Zone; agricultural preserve conversion requires BOS supermajority vote

Acreage Caps

No utility-scale ground-mount effectively permitted in agricultural preserve or open space designations

Spacing Rules

None specified

Size Restrictions

No utility-scale projects have successfully permitted in recent history; agricultural preserve land requires supermajority BOS vote for conversion

Board Sentiment & Political Risk

Sentiment Analysis

Strongly opposed — affluent, environmentally progressive community with deep open space preservation ethic; MCE CCA supports renewable procurement from outside county rather than in-county development; organized groups oppose any large-scale industrial development

Basis for Assessment

Board of Supervisors votes; planning commission records; MCE board proceedings; public comment records; environmental group statements (Marin Conservation League, Audubon Society Marin Chapter)

Political Risk Factors

Worsening

Board Members

Damon Connolly | D | 2026; Katie Rice | D | 2028; Stephanie Moulton-Peters | D | 2026; Dennis Rodoni | D | 2028; Judy Arnold | D | 2026

Grid, Utilities & State Context

Grid Operator

CAISO — PG&E Balancing Authority

Utilities

Pacific Gas & Electric (PG&E), Marin Clean Energy (MCE) — Community Choice Aggregator

State Permitting Process

County zoning + CEQA review required; CEC siting jurisdiction for projects >50 MW on state/federal land; Coastal Commission review for coastal zone; DRECP DFAs streamline desert county permitting

State Incentives

Federal ITC eligible; California Self-Generation Incentive Program (SGIP) for storage; CA Renewables Portfolio Standard procurement; CPUC approved procurement programs

Development Activity

Active/Completed Projects

MCE-procured distributed and rooftop solar (county-wide aggregate); Point Reyes area small commercial; no utility-scale ground-mount on record

Denied/Withdrawn Projects

None confirmed — no applications have advanced through full review process for utility-scale

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Marin County, CA — Solar Development Risk Assessment