45.5

Risk Grade

Good

Limited flat agricultural land due to terrain; border proximity adds CBP coordination complexity; small market with few large developers active; TEP transmission constraints in Nogales area.

Assessment Snapshot

Population

46,498

State Rank

Compliance

40%

Trajectory

Moratorium Status

✓ No Active Moratorium

No Moratorium

Ordinance & Regulations

Setback Requirements

Santa Cruz County ZO: standard Agricultural zone setbacks apply. International border proximity (US/Mexico) adds CBP coordination for projects near border fence.

Zoning Mechanism

CUP via Santa Cruz County Planning & Zoning Commission and Board of Supervisors. Limited viable large-scale sites due to terrain and border proximity.

Acreage Caps

None codified; terrain is the practical constraint.

Density Caps

None codified.

Spacing Rules

None codified.

Size Restrictions

No formal restriction; limited suitable flat land for large installations.

Board Sentiment & Political Risk

Sentiment Analysis

Generally neutral; small county with limited solar market; border security and trade dominate local politics; board is conservative but pragmatic.

Basis for Assessment

Santa Cruz County supervisors are conservative; Nogales economy dominated by cross-border trade; limited agricultural flatlands constrain large-scale solar; TEP is active utility but has limited Nogales-area transmission capacity for large additions.

Political Risk Factors

Stable

Board Members

Santa Cruz County Board of Supervisors: Bruce Bracker (District 1) | R | 2026; Manuel Ruiz Jr. (District 2) | D | 2026; Manny Ruiz (District 3) | R | 2026.

Grid, Utilities & State Context

Grid Operator

Tucson Electric Power (TEP) / Western Interconnection (WECC)

Utilities

Tucson Electric Power (TEP) — UNS Energy / Fortis, None significant

State Permitting Process

Santa Cruz County CUP via Planning & Zoning Commission and Board of Supervisors. Arizona One-Stop Shop. TEP interconnection study. CBP coordination for projects within 50-mile border zone. ADWR water rights. FAA coordination.

State Incentives

No binding Arizona RPS. TEP renewable commitment. Federal ITC/PVTC. Arizona solar tax exemptions. Border Economic Zone incentives in Nogales.

Development Activity

Active/Completed Projects

Nogales area commercial solar | <5 MW each | Permitted Grasslands solar (private) | ~3 MW | CUP approved

Denied/Withdrawn Projects

No major utility-scale denials on record; limited pipeline due to terrain.

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Santa Cruz County, AZ — Solar Development Risk Assessment